Unveiling Survivor Bias—Learning from the Unseen in E-commerce

Unveiling Survivor Bias—Learning from the Unseen in E-commerce

In today's episode, we dive into the fascinating concept of Survivor Bias and explore how it influences our decision-making processes, particularly in the realm of e-commerce.

The WWII Airplane Story and Abraham Wald's Insight

During World War II, a special team was formed to reinforce the fuselages of airplanes to keep them airborne longer. 🛩️ They analyzed returning aircraft riddled with bullet holes and plotted the impact points on a diagram, revealing the areas that were hit most frequently. The obvious solution seemed clear: reinforce those heavily damaged areas. ☝️

But when mathematician Abraham Wald was consulted, he offered a counterintuitive perspective that shifted their approach entirely. He pointed out that the areas without bullet holes on the returning planes were actually the most critical. Why? Because planes hit in those areas—like the engines or cockpit—didn't make it back at all. "Reinforce the areas where there are no bullet holes," he advised, "because those are the planes that didn't survive." This revelation led to more effective reinforcement strategies that saved countless lives.

Applying Survivor Bias to E-commerce

Just as military strategists initially focused on the visible damage, businesses often concentrate on the obvious issues—the "red bullet holes"—in their operations. In e-commerce, this might mean fixing glitches or optimizing features based on existing user data. But what about the customers who never make it to your site or those who leave without a trace?

• Invisible Data Gaps: We may overlook significant problems simply because we lack data on them. The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

• Understanding Non-Customers: Consider the users who don't convert or don't engage. What barriers are preventing them from becoming customers?

• Asking the Right Questions: Sometimes, the best way to gather missing information is to reach out directly. Surveys, feedback forms, or even brief questionnaires can provide valuable insights into why potential customers are slipping away.

Think Differently for Different Results

By shifting our focus to include what's not immediately visible, we open the door to innovative solutions. Einstein once said, "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." 🚀 Embracing this mindset encourages us to look beyond the obvious and address underlying issues that could be critical to our success.

Key Takeaways:

• Don't just fix what's visibly broken; seek out the unseen obstacles.

• Gather data proactively to understand the full picture.

• Challenge assumptions that "no data" means "no problem."

Join us as we explore how recognizing and overcoming survivor bias can lead to more effective strategies in e-commerce and beyond.

#Letstalkabout #Metrics #Ecommerce #Analysis #OutOfTheBox 🎙️🛍️